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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 20:00 · BayArena
Leverkusen2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Marseille34th place
B04 70%X 16%OM 14%

What does the market say?

LeverkusenDrawMarseilleRinvalo70%16%14%
Market66%19%15%

✓ Agree · both back Leverkusen

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 177 points on the European rating.
  • The Bundesliga average is 62 points above the Ligue 1 average.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 87% of the time
  • If Marseille score first, they win 37% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.2 – 0.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.43X16%6.12214%7.26
Double chance
1X86%1.16X230%3.321284%1.20
Goals
Over 2.557%1.77Market 66%Under 2.543%2.30Market 34%BTTS yes49%2.05Market 58%BTTS no51%1.95Market 42%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
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Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Marseille2-0 probability 12.3%

Form

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