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Europa League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 5 November · 20:00 · Estádio Manuel Marques
Torreense28th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Ararat-Armenia36th place
TOR 61%X 19%ARA 20%

What does the market say?

TorreenseDrawArarat-ArmeniaRinvalo61%19%20%
Market54%25%21%

✓ Agree · both back Torreense

Prediction

Key factors
  • Torreense lead by 96 points on the European rating.
  • If Torreense score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Ararat-Armenia score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Torreense win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
161%1.64X19%5.30220%4.96
Double chance
1X80%1.25X239%2.561281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Market 47%Under 2.542%2.37Market 53%BTTS yes56%1.80Market 48%BTTS no44%2.26Market 52%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Torreense · Columns: Ararat-Armenia1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

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