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Europa League · League phase, matchday 5Thursday 26 November · 20:00 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim23rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Sturm Graz19th place
TSG 64%X 18%STU 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 119 points on the European rating.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Sturm Graz score first, they win 42% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 0.9
Over 2.557%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.57X18%5.50218%5.50
Double chance
1X82%1.22X236%2.751282%1.22
Goals
Over 2.557%1.74Under 2.543%2.35BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Sturm Graz2-0 probability 10.5%

Form

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