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Europa League · League phase, matchday 6Thursday 10 December · 20:00 · BayArena
Leverkusen2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Beşiktaş8th place
B04 62%X 19%BJK 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 108 points on the European rating.
  • The Bundesliga average is 104 points above the Süper Lig average.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 82% of the time
  • If Beşiktaş score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
162%1.60X19%5.40219%5.22
Double chance
1X81%1.24X238%2.651281%1.23
Goals
Over 2.558%1.74Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Beşiktaş1-1 probability 10.6%

Form

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