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Europa League · League phase, matchday 6Thursday 10 December · 20:00 · Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Milan24th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Sunderland9th place
MIL 58%X 20%SUN 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Milan lead by 70 points on the European rating.
  • The Premier League average is 123 points above the Serie A average.
  • If Milan score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Milan win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.73X20%5.10223%4.41
Double chance
1X77%1.29X242%2.361280%1.24
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Milan · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

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