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Süper Lig · Matchday 25Sunday 14 March · 12:00 · Gain Park Stadyumu
Alanyaspor12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Fenerbahçe6th place
ALN 19%X 23%FB 58%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 212 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 0.8, Alanyaspor -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Fenerbahçe 1.8 points per game, Alanyaspor 0.8.
  • If Alanyaspor score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 80% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.1 – 2.0
Over 2.559%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Fenerbahçe win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.32X23%4.38258%1.71
Double chance
1X42%2.40X281%1.231277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.43BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Alanyaspor · Columns: Fenerbahçe1-1 probability 10.7%

Form

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Head to head

Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor17 October 20263-0
Alanyaspor – Fenerbahçe18 January 20262-3
Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor17 September 20252-2
Alanyaspor – Fenerbahçe9 February 20250-2
Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor30 August 20243-0
Fenerbahçe – Alanyaspor11 February 20242-2