TR
Picks
Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 10Sunday 1 November · 15:30 · Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca5th place
Full time1-0Exact score
Nacional15th place
ARO 53%X 26%NAC 21%

What does the market say?

AroucaDrawNacionalRinvalo53%26%21%
Market52%25%23%

✓ Agree · both back Arouca

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 115 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 1.0 points per game, Nacional 0.0.
  • Arouca take 2.1 points per game at home.
  • If Arouca score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.551%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.89X26%3.81221%4.77
Double chance
1X79%1.27X247%2.121274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.551%1.98Under 2.549%2.02BTTS yes52%1.91BTTS no48%2.10

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Arouca · Columns: Nacional1-0 probability 10.7% · final score

Form

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AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Arouca – Nacional1 November 20261-0
Arouca – Nacional21 February 20263-0
Nacional – Arouca20 September 20251-2
Nacional – Arouca1 February 20251-2
Arouca – Nacional25 August 20241-0