TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 10Friday 30 October · 20:15 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Full time0-2Rinvalo's pick: 0-2✓ Exact score
Sporting CP3rd place
CPA 9%X 15%SCP 76%

What does the market say?

Casa PiaDrawSporting CPRinvalo9%15%76%
Market10%17%72%

✓ Agree · both back Sporting CP

Prediction

Predicted: 0-2
Key factors
  • Sporting CP lead by 334 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Sporting CP 1.2, Casa Pia -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: Sporting CP 2.2 points per game, Casa Pia 0.8.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 28% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 90% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals0.8 – 2.6
Over 2.566%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score0-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
19%11.48X15%6.64276%1.31
Double chance
1X24%4.21X291%1.101285%1.18
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.94BTTS yes51%1.97BTTS no49%2.03

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Sporting CP0-2 probability 11.4% · final score

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Casa Pia – Sporting CP30 October 20260-2
Sporting CP – Casa Pia16 January 20263-0
Casa Pia – Sporting CP8 August 20250-2
Casa Pia – Sporting CP9 March 20251-3
Sporting CP – Casa Pia5 October 20242-0
Sporting CP – Casa Pia29 January 20248-0