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Primeira Liga · Matchday 10Saturday 31 October · 20:30 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Full time4-0Rinvalo's pick: 2-0✓ Result correct
Estoril18th place
POR 78%X 16%EST 7%

What does the market say?

PortoDrawEstorilRinvalo78%16%7%
Market78%15%7%

✓ Agree · both back Porto

Prediction

Predicted: 2-0
Key factors
  • Porto lead by 316 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Estoril 0.2.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.0, Estoril -0.5.
  • If Porto score first, they win 92% of the time
  • If Estoril score first, they win 28% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.5 – 0.6
Over 2.559%
Both teams score41%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
178%1.28X16%6.4227%15.38
Double chance
1X94%1.07X222%4.531284%1.18
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.43BTTS yes41%2.41BTTS no59%1.71

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Estoril4-0 probability 7.2% · final score

Form

Compare →
PortoWWWWW
EstorilLLLLL

Head to head

Porto – Estoril31 October 20264-0
Estoril – Porto12 April 20261-3
Porto – Estoril30 November 20251-0
Estoril – Porto30 March 20251-2
Porto – Estoril3 November 20244-0
Estoril – Porto30 March 20241-0