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Picks
Mon 19:45ATA1-0PAR59%Mon 19:45LOR1-0BRE44%Mon 20:00DEP1-0OSA43%Mon 20:00NEW1-0EVE42%Mon 20:15BEN2-0ALV77%Mon 20:15GIL1-0VSC44%Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 10Saturday 31 October · 15:30 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Full time2-1Prediction correct
Estrela Amadora12th place
MOR 40%X 29%EAM 31%

What does the market say?

MoreirenseDrawEstrela AmadoraRinvalo40%29%31%
Market34%28%38%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo Moreirense 40%, market Estrela Amadora 38%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-0
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 62% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.2
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Moreirense win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
140%2.49X29%3.45231%3.24
Double chance
1X69%1.45X260%1.671271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.17

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Estrela Amadora2-1 probability 8.8% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Moreirense – Estrela Amadora31 October 20262-1
Moreirense – Estrela Amadora2 May 20263-2
Estrela Amadora – Moreirense20 December 20250-0
Moreirense – Estrela Amadora2 March 20251-1
Estrela Amadora – Moreirense28 September 20242-1
Moreirense – Estrela Amadora7 April 20242-2