TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 28Saturday 3 April · 14:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Hamburg15th place
FCB 87%X 10%HSV 4%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 343 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Hamburg -0.7.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.6 points per game at home.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 16% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 1%
Expected goals3.7 – 0.9
Over 2.584%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
187%1.16X10%10.2924%26.95
Double chance
1X96%1.04X213%7.451290%1.11
Goals
Over 2.584%1.20Under 2.516%6.06BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Hamburg3-0 probability 8.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hamburg – Bayern Munich31 January 20262-2
Bayern Munich – Hamburg13 September 20255-0