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Bundesliga · Matchday 28Saturday 3 April · 14:30 · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Mainz9th place
FCU 36%X 28%M05 36%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Mainz take 2.3 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Union Berlin -0.2.
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.4
Over 2.552%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.79X28%3.60236%2.75
Double chance
1X64%1.57X264%1.561272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Union Berlin · Columns: Mainz1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Mainz – Union Berlin10 May 20261-3
Union Berlin – Mainz10 January 20262-2
Union Berlin – Mainz19 January 20252-1
Mainz – Union Berlin24 August 20241-1
Mainz – Union Berlin7 February 20241-1
Union Berlin – Mainz20 August 20234-1