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Bundesliga · Matchday 28Saturday 3 April · 14:30 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Freiburg3rd place
RBL 58%X 24%SCF 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig take 2.8 points per game at home.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Freiburg 0.3.
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.2
Over 2.564%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.74X24%4.24219%5.31
Double chance
1X81%1.23X242%2.361276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.564%1.57Under 2.536%2.74BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Freiburg1-1 probability 10.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – RB Leipzig16 May 20264-1
RB Leipzig – Freiburg14 January 20262-0
Freiburg – RB Leipzig8 March 20250-0
RB Leipzig – Freiburg26 October 20243-1
Freiburg – RB Leipzig6 April 20241-4
RB Leipzig – Freiburg12 November 20233-1