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Bundesliga · Matchday 28Saturday 3 April · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Dortmund2nd place
B04 36%X 27%BVB 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 102 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 1.8 points per game away.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.557%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.78X27%3.68237%2.71
Double chance
1X63%1.58X264%1.561273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.557%1.75Under 2.543%2.33BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.54

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Dortmund1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Leverkusen11 April 20260-1
Leverkusen – Dortmund29 November 20251-2
Leverkusen – Dortmund11 May 20252-4
Dortmund – Leverkusen10 January 20252-3
Dortmund – Leverkusen21 April 20241-1
Leverkusen – Dortmund3 December 20231-1