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Bundesliga · Matchday 28Saturday 3 April · 14:30 · Stadion im Borussia-Park
M'gladbach18th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Werder Bremen5th place
BMG 36%X 27%SVW 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • Werder Bremen lead by 72 rating points.
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.5
Over 2.556%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Werder Bremen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
136%2.77X27%3.67237%2.73
Double chance
1X63%1.58X264%1.561273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.29BTTS yes60%1.67BTTS no40%2.50

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: M'gladbach · Columns: Werder Bremen1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Werder Bremen – M'gladbach31 January 20261-1
M'gladbach – Werder Bremen14 September 20250-4
Werder Bremen – M'gladbach15 March 20252-4
M'gladbach – Werder Bremen3 November 20244-1
Werder Bremen – M'gladbach4 May 20242-2
M'gladbach – Werder Bremen15 December 20232-2