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Championship · Matchday 37Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Birmingham City6th place
BOL 22%X 24%BIR 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 138 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.8
Over 2.556%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
122%4.46X24%4.08253%1.88
Double chance
1X47%2.13X278%1.291276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.26BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.31

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Birmingham City1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

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