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Championship · Matchday 37Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Millwall12th place
BUR 35%X 28%MIL 37%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Millwall 0.5, Burnley -0.2.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 65% of the time
  • If Millwall score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.549%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Millwall win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.84X28%3.55237%2.73
Double chance
1X63%1.58X265%1.541272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.06Under 2.552%1.94BTTS yes54%1.85BTTS no46%2.18

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Millwall1-1 probability 13.4%

Form

Compare →
BurnleyWDLLD

Head to head

Burnley – Millwall3 May 20253-1
Millwall – Burnley3 November 20241-0
Millwall – Burnley21 February 20231-1
Burnley – Millwall30 August 20222-0