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Championship · Matchday 37Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Southampton2nd place
MID 47%X 26%SOU 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Southampton 0.2.
  • Middlesbrough take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.12X26%3.83227%3.74
Double chance
1X73%1.37X253%1.891274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes61%1.65BTTS no39%2.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Southampton4 January 20264-0
Southampton – Middlesbrough27 September 20251-1
Southampton – Middlesbrough29 March 20241-1
Middlesbrough – Southampton23 September 20232-1