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Championship · Matchday 37Saturday 13 March · 15:00 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Swansea City3rd place
CAR 34%X 27%SWA 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 135 rating points.
  • Swansea City take 2.0 points per game away.
  • Derby match.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.4
Over 2.551%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Swansea City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.91X27%3.69239%2.59
Double chance
1X61%1.63X266%1.521273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.551%1.97Under 2.549%2.03BTTS yes56%1.80BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Swansea City1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

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Head to head

Cardiff City – Swansea City18 January 20253-0
Swansea City – Cardiff City25 August 20241-1
Swansea City – Cardiff City16 March 20242-0
Cardiff City – Swansea City16 September 20232-0
Cardiff City – Swansea City1 April 20232-3
Swansea City – Cardiff City23 October 20222-0