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Bundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday 7 November · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Elversberg7th place
BVB 73%X 17%SVE 9%

What's at stake

DortmundTop 494%89%85%
ElversbergRelegation2%6%6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 205 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Dortmund 0.4, Elversberg -0.7.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 88% of the time
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 30% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.7 – 0.9
Over 2.570%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
173%1.37X17%5.7329%10.74
Double chance
1X91%1.10X227%3.741283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.570%1.43Under 2.530%3.35BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Elversberg2-0 probability 9.6%

Form

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