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Bundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday 7 November · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2High confidence
Bayern Munich1st place
M05 11%X 16%FCB 73%

What's at stake

Bayern MunichTitle97%97%94%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 287 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Mainz 0.4.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 29% of the time
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 87% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals1.2 – 3.0
Over 2.578%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-2
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
111%9.31X16%6.34273%1.36
Double chance
1X27%3.77X289%1.121284%1.19
Goals
Over 2.578%1.28Under 2.522%4.56BTTS yes65%1.53BTTS no35%2.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Bayern Munich1-2 probability 8.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Mainz – Bayern Munich25 April 20263-4
Bayern Munich – Mainz14 December 20252-2
Bayern Munich – Mainz26 April 20253-0
Mainz – Bayern Munich14 December 20242-1
Bayern Munich – Mainz9 March 20248-1
Mainz – Bayern Munich21 October 20231-3