TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Bundesliga · Matchday 9Sunday 8 November · 14:30 · RheinEnergieStadion
Köln13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Leverkusen6th place
KOE 33%X 26%B04 41%

What's at stake

KölnRelegation4%8%9%
LeverkusenTop 440%28%25%

What does the market say?

KölnDrawLeverkusenRinvalo33%26%41%
Market23%23%55%

✓ Agree · both back Leverkusen

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 154 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Leverkusen 1.8 points per game, Köln 1.0.
  • The market also backs the away side (55%).
  • If Köln score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.7
Over 2.562%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
133%3.01X26%3.88241%2.44
Double chance
1X59%1.70X267%1.501274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.562%1.62Market 68%Under 2.538%2.62Market 32%BTTS yes64%1.56Market 65%BTTS no36%2.79Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Köln · Columns: Leverkusen1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

Compare →
KölnLWLDD

Head to head

Köln – Leverkusen25 April 20261-2
Leverkusen – Köln13 December 20252-0
Köln – Leverkusen3 March 20240-2
Leverkusen – Köln8 October 20233-0
Leverkusen – Köln5 May 20231-2
Köln – Leverkusen9 November 20221-2