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Bundesliga · Matchday 9Friday 6 November · 19:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
M'gladbach18th place
HSV 46%X 27%BMG 27%

What's at stake

HamburgRelegation6%10%17%
M'gladbachRelegation31%45%50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Hamburg 1.8 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.552%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Hamburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.16X27%3.74227%3.71
Double chance
1X73%1.37X254%1.861273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.552%1.91Under 2.548%2.10BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.27

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: M'gladbach1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

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Head to head

Hamburg – M'gladbach17 January 20260-0
M'gladbach – Hamburg24 August 20250-0