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Bundesliga · Matchday 9Saturday 7 November · 14:30 · Red Bull Arena Leipzig
RB Leipzig4th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Augsburg10th place
RBL 70%X 18%FCA 12%

What's at stake

RB LeipzigTop 486%80%76%
AugsburgRelegation1%3%5%

What does the market say?

RB LeipzigDrawAugsburgRinvalo70%18%12%
Market63%20%17%

✓ Agree · both back RB Leipzig

Prediction

Key factors
  • RB Leipzig lead by 108 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Augsburg -0.5.
  • Last 5 games: RB Leipzig 1.8 points per game, Augsburg 0.4.
  • The market also backs the home side (63%).
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 34% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.5 – 1.0
Over 2.567%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
170%1.43X18%5.41212%8.52
Double chance
1X88%1.13X230%3.311282%1.23
Goals
Over 2.567%1.49Market 74%Under 2.533%3.06Market 26%BTTS yes58%1.74Market 66%BTTS no42%2.36Market 34%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: RB Leipzig · Columns: Augsburg2-0 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Augsburg7 March 20262-1
Augsburg – RB Leipzig25 October 20250-6
Augsburg – RB Leipzig14 February 20250-0
RB Leipzig – Augsburg28 September 20244-0
Augsburg – RB Leipzig10 February 20242-2
RB Leipzig – Augsburg16 September 20233-0