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Bundesliga · Matchday 9Sunday 8 November · 16:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Union Berlin16th place
SCF 59%X 24%FCU 17%

What's at stake

FreiburgTop 441%31%26%
Union BerlinRelegation15%20%27%

What does the market say?

FreiburgDrawUnion BerlinRinvalo59%24%17%
Market61%22%16%

✓ Agree · both back Freiburg

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 120 rating points.
  • The market also backs the home side (61%).
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 0.9
Over 2.555%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-0 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.70X24%4.09217%5.95
Double chance
1X83%1.20X241%2.421276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Market 59%Under 2.545%2.20Market 41%BTTS yes53%1.89Market 55%BTTS no47%2.13Market 45%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Union Berlin1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – Union Berlin15 March 20260-1
Union Berlin – Freiburg1 November 20250-0
Freiburg – Union Berlin30 March 20251-2
Union Berlin – Freiburg8 November 20240-0
Union Berlin – Freiburg18 May 20242-1
Freiburg – Union Berlin13 January 20240-0