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Bundesliga · Matchday 31Saturday 24 April · 14:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
BVB 46%X 27%RBL 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 77 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.3
Over 2.556%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.17X27%3.72227%3.69
Double chance
1X73%1.37X254%1.851273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.29BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.44

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 12.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

RB Leipzig – Dortmund21 February 20262-2
Dortmund – RB Leipzig4 October 20251-1
RB Leipzig – Dortmund15 March 20252-0
Dortmund – RB Leipzig2 November 20242-1
RB Leipzig – Dortmund27 April 20244-1
Dortmund – RB Leipzig9 December 20232-3