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Bundesliga · Matchday 31Saturday 24 April · 14:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Union Berlin16th place
TSG 59%X 24%FCU 17%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Hoffenheim lead by 79 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, Union Berlin -0.2.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 44% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.0
Over 2.560%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Hoffenheim win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.68X24%4.26217%5.87
Double chance
1X83%1.21X241%2.471277%1.31
Goals
Over 2.560%1.66Under 2.540%2.51BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Union Berlin1-1 probability 10.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hoffenheim – Union Berlin31 January 20263-1
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim13 September 20252-4
Hoffenheim – Union Berlin8 February 20250-4
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim21 September 20242-1
Hoffenheim – Union Berlin17 February 20240-1
Union Berlin – Hoffenheim23 September 20230-2