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Bundesliga · Matchday 11Sunday 29 November · 18:30 · Signal Iduna Park
Dortmund2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Leverkusen6th place
BVB 56%X 25%B04 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Dortmund lead by 102 rating points.
  • Dortmund take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.1
Over 2.559%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Dortmund win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.79X25%4.07220%5.10
Double chance
1X80%1.24X244%2.261275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.559%1.70Under 2.541%2.43BTTS yes58%1.72BTTS no42%2.38

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Dortmund · Columns: Leverkusen1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Dortmund – Leverkusen11 April 20260-1
Leverkusen – Dortmund29 November 20251-2
Leverkusen – Dortmund11 May 20252-4
Dortmund – Leverkusen10 January 20252-3
Dortmund – Leverkusen21 April 20241-1
Leverkusen – Dortmund3 December 20231-1