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Bundesliga · Matchday 11Saturday 28 November · 14:30 · RheinEnergieStadion
Köln13th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Elversberg7th place
KOE 53%X 24%SVE 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Köln -0.1, Elversberg -0.7.
  • If Köln score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.1 – 1.3
Over 2.566%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Köln win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X24%4.17223%4.38
Double chance
1X77%1.30X247%2.141276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.566%1.51Under 2.534%2.95BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.86

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Köln · Columns: Elversberg1-1 probability 9.8%

Form

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KölnLWLDD