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Bundesliga · Matchday 11Sunday 29 November · 14:30 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
RB Leipzig4th place
SCF 34%X 27%RBL 39%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: RB Leipzig 1.0, Freiburg 0.3.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If RB Leipzig score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.561%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a RB Leipzig win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.97X27%3.73239%2.53
Double chance
1X61%1.65X266%1.511273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.561%1.65Under 2.539%2.54BTTS yes63%1.58BTTS no37%2.72

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: RB Leipzig1-1 probability 11.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Freiburg – RB Leipzig16 May 20264-1
RB Leipzig – Freiburg14 January 20262-0
Freiburg – RB Leipzig8 March 20250-0
RB Leipzig – Freiburg26 October 20243-1
Freiburg – RB Leipzig6 April 20241-4
RB Leipzig – Freiburg12 November 20233-1