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Bundesliga · Matchday 11Saturday 28 November · 14:30 · MEWA ARENA
Mainz9th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Union Berlin16th place
M05 55%X 25%FCU 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Union Berlin -0.2.
  • If Mainz score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Union Berlin score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.0
Over 2.555%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.83X25%3.97220%4.97
Double chance
1X80%1.25X245%2.211275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.20BTTS yes55%1.82BTTS no45%2.22

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Mainz · Columns: Union Berlin1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Mainz – Union Berlin10 May 20261-3
Union Berlin – Mainz10 January 20262-2
Union Berlin – Mainz19 January 20252-1
Mainz – Union Berlin24 August 20241-1
Mainz – Union Berlin7 February 20241-1
Union Berlin – Mainz20 August 20234-1