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Bundesliga · Matchday 11Saturday 28 November · 14:30 · Volksparkstadion
Hamburg15th place
Rinvalo prediction0-3High confidence
Bayern Munich1st place
HSV 8%X 13%FCB 79%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 343 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 2.4, Hamburg -0.7.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.4 points per game away.
  • If Hamburg score first, they win 24% of the time
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 91% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 2%
Expected goals0.9 – 3.1
Over 2.576%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score0-3
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
18%12.92X13%7.66279%1.26
Double chance
1X21%4.81X292%1.081287%1.15
Goals
Over 2.576%1.31Under 2.524%4.23BTTS yes58%1.71BTTS no42%2.40

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hamburg · Columns: Bayern Munich0-3 probability 8.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Hamburg – Bayern Munich31 January 20262-2
Bayern Munich – Hamburg13 September 20255-0