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Bundesliga · Matchday 11Sunday 29 November · 16:30 · PreZero Arena
Hoffenheim12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Augsburg10th place
TSG 58%X 23%FCA 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Hoffenheim 0.4, Augsburg -0.5.
  • If Hoffenheim score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Augsburg score first, they win 45% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.2 – 1.2
Over 2.566%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.72X23%4.37219%5.25
Double chance
1X81%1.24X242%2.381277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.92BTTS yes63%1.59BTTS no37%2.70

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Hoffenheim · Columns: Augsburg2-1 probability 9.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Augsburg – Hoffenheim10 April 20262-2
Hoffenheim – Augsburg29 November 20253-0
Hoffenheim – Augsburg29 March 20251-1
Augsburg – Hoffenheim10 November 20240-0
Hoffenheim – Augsburg7 April 20243-1
Augsburg – Hoffenheim11 November 20231-1