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Bundesliga · Matchday 11Friday 27 November · 19:30 · Weserstadion
Werder Bremen5th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
M'gladbach18th place
SVW 56%X 24%BMG 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Werder Bremen 2.2 points per game, M'gladbach 0.8.
  • Werder Bremen lead by 72 rating points.
  • If Werder Bremen score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If M'gladbach score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Werder Bremen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.78X24%4.12220%5.11
Double chance
1X80%1.24X244%2.281276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Werder Bremen · Columns: M'gladbach1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Werder Bremen – M'gladbach31 January 20261-1
M'gladbach – Werder Bremen14 September 20250-4
Werder Bremen – M'gladbach15 March 20252-4
M'gladbach – Werder Bremen3 November 20244-1
Werder Bremen – M'gladbach4 May 20242-2
M'gladbach – Werder Bremen15 December 20232-2