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Bundesliga · Matchday 8Friday 30 October · 19:30 · Waldstadion Kaiserlinde
Elversberg7th place
Full time4-1Prediction wrong
Mainz9th place
SVE 34%X 27%M05 39%

What does the market say?

ElversbergDrawMainzRinvalo34%27%39%
Market30%25%45%

✓ Agree · both back Mainz

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Mainz 0.4, Elversberg -0.6.
  • Mainz lead by 61 rating points.
  • Mainz take 2.3 points per game away.
  • If Elversberg score first, they win 62% of the time
  • If Mainz score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.6
Over 2.560%
Both teams score63%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Mainz win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.95X27%3.72239%2.55
Double chance
1X61%1.64X266%1.511273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.560%1.67Under 2.540%2.49BTTS yes63%1.60BTTS no37%2.68

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Elversberg · Columns: Mainz4-1 probability 1.5% · final score

Form

Compare →
MainzWLWLL

Head to head

Elversberg – Mainz30 October 20264-1