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Bundesliga · Matchday 8Saturday 31 October · 14:30 · BayArena
Leverkusen6th place
Full time2-4Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Stuttgart11th place
B04 52%X 24%VFB 23%

What does the market say?

LeverkusenDrawStuttgartRinvalo52%24%23%
Market53%22%25%

✓ Agree · both back Leverkusen

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Leverkusen 0.7, Stuttgart -0.2.
  • Last 5 games: Leverkusen 1.6 points per game, Stuttgart 0.8.
  • Leverkusen take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Stuttgart score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.0 – 1.3
Over 2.566%
Both teams score65%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.91X24%4.10223%4.29
Double chance
1X77%1.30X248%2.101276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.566%1.52Under 2.534%2.92BTTS yes65%1.54BTTS no35%2.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leverkusen · Columns: Stuttgart2-4 probability 0.9% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Leverkusen – Stuttgart31 October 20262-4
Stuttgart – Leverkusen9 May 20263-1
Leverkusen – Stuttgart10 January 20261-4
Stuttgart – Leverkusen16 March 20253-4
Leverkusen – Stuttgart1 November 20240-0
Leverkusen – Stuttgart27 April 20242-2