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Bundesliga · Matchday 8Saturday 31 October · 17:30 · Allianz Arena
Bayern Munich1st place
Full time2-2Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✕ Missed
Dortmund2nd place
FCB 66%X 20%BVB 13%

What does the market say?

Bayern MunichDrawDortmundRinvalo66%20%13%
Market71%16%13%

✓ Agree · both back Bayern Munich

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
Key factors
  • Bayern Munich lead by 81 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bayern Munich 1.5, Dortmund 0.4.
  • Bayern Munich take 2.5 points per game at home.
  • If Bayern Munich score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Dortmund score first, they win 36% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals2.5 – 1.1
Over 2.569%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score2-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
166%1.50X20%4.94213%7.52
Double chance
1X87%1.15X234%2.981280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.569%1.44Under 2.531%3.25BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.59

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bayern Munich · Columns: Dortmund2-2 probability 5.1% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Bayern Munich – Dortmund31 October 20262-2
Dortmund – Bayern Munich28 February 20262-3
Bayern Munich – Dortmund18 October 20252-1
Bayern Munich – Dortmund12 April 20252-2
Dortmund – Bayern Munich30 November 20241-1
Bayern Munich – Dortmund30 March 20240-2