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Süper Lig · Matchday 33Sunday 16 May · 13:00 · Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu
Erzurumspor11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Başakşehir10th place
ERZ 27%X 27%İBFK 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Başakşehir lead by 123 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Başakşehir 0.1, Erzurumspor -0.5.
  • If Erzurumspor score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Başakşehir score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.5
Over 2.549%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Başakşehir win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
127%3.77X27%3.70246%2.15
Double chance
1X54%1.87X274%1.361273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes53%1.89BTTS no47%2.12

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Erzurumspor · Columns: Başakşehir1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

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