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Süper Lig · Matchday 30Sunday 25 April · 13:00 · Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu
Erzurumspor11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Fenerbahçe6th place
ERZ 17%X 22%FB 61%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Fenerbahçe lead by 228 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Fenerbahçe 0.8, Erzurumspor -0.5.
  • If Erzurumspor score first, they win 43% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.0
Over 2.558%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Fenerbahçe win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.95X22%4.55261%1.63
Double chance
1X39%2.58X283%1.201278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes55%1.83BTTS no45%2.21

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Erzurumspor · Columns: Fenerbahçe1-1 probability 10.5%

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