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Süper Lig · Matchday 22Sunday 21 February · 12:00 · Kocaeli Stadyumu
Kocaelispor8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Galatasaray1st place
KOC 20%X 26%GS 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Galatasaray lead by 224 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Galatasaray 1.3, Kocaelispor -0.1.
  • Last 5 games: Galatasaray 2.4 points per game, Kocaelispor 1.4.
  • If Kocaelispor score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Galatasaray score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.6
Over 2.544%
Both teams score46%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
120%5.13X26%3.90255%1.82
Double chance
1X45%2.22X280%1.241274%1.34
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.77BTTS yes46%2.18BTTS no54%1.85

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
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Rows: Kocaelispor · Columns: Galatasaray0-1 probability 13.3%

Form

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Head to head

Galatasaray – Kocaelispor13 September 20261-0
Galatasaray – Kocaelispor12 April 20261-1
Kocaelispor – Galatasaray9 November 20251-0