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Süper Lig · Matchday 32Sunday 9 May · 13:00 · Papara Park
Trabzonspor3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Fenerbahçe6th place
TS 43%X 27%FB 31%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Trabzonspor 3.0 points per game, Fenerbahçe 1.8.
  • Trabzonspor take 2.3 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Trabzonspor score first, they win 69% of the time
  • If Fenerbahçe score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.561%
Both teams score64%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Trabzonspor win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.33X27%3.77231%3.28
Double chance
1X70%1.44X257%1.751273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.561%1.63Under 2.539%2.59BTTS yes64%1.57BTTS no37%2.74

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Trabzonspor · Columns: Fenerbahçe1-1 probability 11.2%

Form

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Head to head

Trabzonspor – Fenerbahçe14 February 20262-3
Fenerbahçe – Trabzonspor14 September 20251-0
Fenerbahçe – Trabzonspor6 April 20254-1
Trabzonspor – Fenerbahçe3 November 20242-3
Trabzonspor – Fenerbahçe17 March 20242-3
Fenerbahçe – Trabzonspor4 November 20232-3