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Conference League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · New Balance Arena
Atalanta15th place
Rinvalo prediction2-0
Kairat Almaty31st place
ATA 68%X 17%KAI 15%

What does the market say?

AtalantaDrawKairat AlmatyRinvalo68%17%15%
Market80%13%6%

✓ Agree · both back Atalanta

Prediction

Key factors
  • Atalanta lead by 155 points on the European rating.
  • If Atalanta score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Kairat Almaty score first, they win 39% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.8
Over 2.557%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
168%1.48X17%5.85215%6.60
Double chance
1X85%1.18X232%3.101283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.557%1.76Market 67%Under 2.543%2.31Market 33%BTTS yes51%1.98Market 46%BTTS no49%2.02Market 54%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
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Rows: Atalanta · Columns: Kairat Almaty2-0 probability 11.7%

Form

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