TR
Picks
Conference League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · Olympia
MJA 57%X 20%BOR 23%

What does the market say?

MjällbyDrawBorac Banja LukaRinvalo57%20%23%
Market43%27%30%

✓ Agree · both back Mjällby

Prediction

Key factors
  • Mjällby lead by 60 points on the European rating.
  • If Mjällby score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Borac Banja Luka score first, they win 49% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Mjällby win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.77X20%5.02223%4.26
Double chance
1X77%1.31X243%2.301280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Market 45%Under 2.542%2.38Market 55%BTTS yes58%1.73Market 50%BTTS no42%2.37Market 50%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Mjällby · Columns: Borac Banja Luka1-1 probability 11.1%