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Conference League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · MCH Arena
FC Midtjylland26th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Ajax13th place
MID 54%X 20%AJA 25%

What does the market say?

FC MidtjyllandDrawAjaxRinvalo54%20%25%
Market35%25%40%

⚠ Split · Rinvalo FC Midtjylland 54%, market Ajax 40%

Prediction

Key factors
  • FC Midtjylland lead by 41 points on the European rating.
  • If FC Midtjylland score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Ajax score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a FC Midtjylland win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.85X20%4.90225%3.93
Double chance
1X75%1.34X246%2.181280%1.26
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Market 64%Under 2.542%2.39Market 36%BTTS yes59%1.70Market 66%BTTS no41%2.43Market 34%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: FC Midtjylland · Columns: Ajax1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

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