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Conference League · League phase, matchday 3Thursday 5 November · 17:45 · Stockhorn Arena
Thun32nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Heart of Midlothian28th place
THU 58%X 20%HEA 23%

What does the market say?

ThunDrawHeart of MidlothianRinvalo58%20%23%
Market43%26%31%

✓ Agree · both back Thun

Prediction

Key factors
  • Thun lead by 68 points on the European rating.
  • If Thun score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Heart of Midlothian score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Thun win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
158%1.74X20%5.07223%4.40
Double chance
1X77%1.29X242%2.351280%1.25
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Market 61%Under 2.542%2.38Market 39%BTTS yes57%1.74Market 65%BTTS no43%2.35Market 35%

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Thun · Columns: Heart of Midlothian1-1 probability 11.1%

Form

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