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Conference League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 26 November · 17:45 · Johan Cruijff ArenA
Ajax2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Thun33rd place
AJA 50%X 21%THU 29%

Prediction

  • If Ajax score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Thun score first, they win 54% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.3
Over 2.558%
Both teams score60%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Ajax win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%1.99X21%4.78229%3.47
Double chance
1X71%1.41X250%2.011279%1.26
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.41BTTS yes60%1.66BTTS no40%2.52

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Ajax · Columns: Thun1-1 probability 11.5%

Form

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