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Conference League · League phase, matchday 4Thursday 26 November · 20:00 · Europa-Park Stadion
Freiburg12th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1
Twente35th place
SCF 59%X 19%TWE 22%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Freiburg lead by 76 points on the European rating.
  • The Bundesliga average is 163 points above the Eredivisie average.
  • If Freiburg score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Twente score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Freiburg win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
159%1.71X19%5.15222%4.53
Double chance
1X78%1.28X242%2.411281%1.24
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.38BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Freiburg · Columns: Twente1-1 probability 10.9%

Form

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