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Europa League · League phase, matchday 2Thursday 15 October · 17:45 · AFAS Stadion Alkmaar
AZ Alkmaar10th place
Full time2-1Rinvalo's pick: 2-1✓ Exact score
Hapoel Be'er Sheva30th place
AZ 46%X 22%HAP 33%

Prediction

Predicted: 2-1
  • If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Hapoel Be'er Sheva score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a AZ Alkmaar win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.19X22%4.62233%3.06
Double chance
1X67%1.49X254%1.841278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.71Under 2.542%2.40BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: AZ Alkmaar · Columns: Hapoel Be'er Sheva2-1 probability 9.1% · final score

Form

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Head to head

AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er Sheva15 October 20262-1