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Europa League · League phase, matchday 2Thursday 15 October · 17:45 · ENEA Stadion
Lech Poznan32nd place
Full time0-4Rinvalo's pick: 1-2✓ Result correct
Leverkusen2nd place
LEC 35%X 22%B04 43%

Prediction

Predicted: 1-2
Key factors
  • Leverkusen lead by 111 points on the European rating.
  • If Lech Poznan score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If Leverkusen score first, they win 68% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.6
Over 2.558%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Leverkusen win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.90X22%4.51243%2.31
Double chance
1X57%1.76X265%1.531278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes61%1.64BTTS no39%2.57

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lech Poznan · Columns: Leverkusen0-4 probability 1.4% · final score

Form

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Head to head

Lech Poznan – Leverkusen15 October 20260-4