Benfica vs AZ Alkmaar prediction · Rinvalo

Picks

Europa League · League phase, matchday 8Thursday 28 January · 20:00 · Estádio da Luz

Benfica1st place

Rinvalo prediction2-0

AZ Alkmaar10th place

BEN 73%X 15%AZ 12%

Prediction

Key factors

Benfica lead by 209 points on the European rating.
The Primeira Liga average is 63 points above the Eredivisie average.

If Benfica score first, they win 89% of the time
If AZ Alkmaar score first, they win 34% of the time
Chance of a goalless draw 6%

Expected goals2.2 – 0.7

Over 2.556%

Both teams score45%

Likeliest score2-0

Probabilities and fair odds

Result

173%1.37X15%6.54212%8.55

Double chance

1X88%1.13X227%3.711285%1.18

Goals

Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes45%2.20BTTS no55%1.83

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)

012345

0

1

2

3

4

5

Rows: Benfica · Columns: AZ Alkmaar2-0 probability 13.3%

Form

Make your pick

Benfica

1

–

1

AZ Alkmaar

Rinvalo: 2-0

Standings

#	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Benfica	3	+8	9
2	Leverkusen	3	+8	9
9	Sunderland	3	+2	7
10	AZ Alkmaar	3	+4	6
11	Omonia Nicosia	3	+1	6

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